Lessons from other countries’ experiences suggest herd immunity would not be a realistic goal for China, says this academic.
. Sublineages of the omicron variant BA.5 are currently dominant in China. Omicron has an average R of 9.5, so around 90 per cent of the population needs to be fully protected to reach herd immunity, according to the model.
Before December 2022, China had seen relatively few COVID-19 cases, leaving infection-induced immunity low. This creates a significant gap between the existing levels of immunity and those required to achieve herd immunity, as illustrated in the figure below. In the absence of other control measures, this gap will need to be filled in by infection, resulting in a massive outbreak.
Health data analytics company Airfinity predicts 4 million cases per day at the peak of the upcoming wave, and that the number of deaths could reach 2.1 million. Given the uncertainty about the epidemic spread in China, these numbers might even be underestimates.
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