Grappling with sanctions and severely weakened economies, both countries are already under significant pressure.
Kajaki Hydroelectric Dam in Kajaki, Afghanistan in the Helmand province on June 4, 2018 in Kajaki, Afghanistan. Iran and Afghanistan are going head to head over control of the supply of a crucial resource that's shrinking by the day: water.
"The water dispute with Afghanistan is not something Iran can take lightly," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC. "Water resources in Iran are under severe pressure and water stress has been a trigger of large-scale civil unrest in recent years."
In this picture taken on February 17, 2022, Afghan migrants ride in pickup trucks through a desert road toward the Afghanistan-Iran border in Nimruz.Water tensions between the two countries go way back. In the 1950s, Afghanistan built two major dams that limited the flow of water from the Helmand river into Iran. This angered Tehran and threatened relations, ultimately leading to the signing of a treaty in 1973 that allotted Iran 850 million cubic meters of Helmand water yearly.
"The disagreements over water allotments for the Helmand River are hard to overcome because neither country has the ability to bring more water to the region," said Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Rane. "It's already an extremely dry area, but issues like climate change and overfarming are making it worse."
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in response, told Afghanistan's leaders to take his words "very seriously," saying "I warn the rulers of Afghanistan to give the rights of the people in [the Iranian border regions of] Sistan and Baluchistan immediately." A Taliban commander hit back, saying there was no water for them to give Iran and warning, "Do not attack us. We are not afraid.
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