Can it last?
be surging? War has returned to the Middle East. Tankers in the Red Sea—through which around 12% of seaborne crude is normally shipped—are under attack by Houthi militants. And OPEC, a cartel of oil exporters, is restricting production. Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, has invoked the spectre of 1973, when the Yom Kippur war led to an Arab oil embargo that quadrupled prices in just three months.
There have been exceptions. Brent crude, a global benchmark, ticked above $85 per barrel last spring after OPEC+, a larger organisation which includes Russia, said it would cut production. When Saudi Arabia extended its production cuts in September, prices reached almost $100. The market rose again after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th. Yet each time prices quickly returned to that $75-$85 range . Brent ended 2023 at $78, down $4 from the start of the year.
Oil from Russia, the world’s third-largest producer, has continued to flow despite restrictions from the West, which in 2022 imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian exports of seaborne crude. Traders based in Dubai and Singapore promptly rejigged tanker fleets to send vast quantities of discounted oil through Indian refineries, changing established routes with astonishing agility. Russian oil is now widely traded above the West’s price cap.
Other climate policies will have a similar effect elsewhere. In the long term, the world’s move away from oil will ensure the market is more resilient to geopolitical shocks and production cuts, even if the transition is likely to be. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries recently pushed Brent above $85 per barrel for the first time since early November. For now, though, the price rise looks modest. It will take a lot to roil oil markets this year.
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