In an exclusive excerpt from 'The Rules of Contagion,' epidemiologist Adam Kucharski re-examines the parallels between 2020 and the 2008 financial crisis to explain how quickly panic goes viral—and how to stop it
epidemiologist Adam Kucharski re-examines the parallels between 2020 and the 2008 financial crisis to explain how quickly panic goes viral—and how to stop it.ne Saturday morning in March 2003, a group of experts gathered at WHO headquarters in Geneva to discuss a newly discovered infection in Asia. Cases had already appeared in Hong Kong, China and Vietnam, with another reported in Frankfurt that morning. WHO was about to announce the threat to the world, but first they needed a name.
Haldane suggested that the public typically responds to an outbreak in one of two ways: flight or hide. In the case of an infectious disease, flight means trying to leave an affected area in the hope of avoiding infection. Because of travel restrictions and other control measures, this generally wasn’t an option during the SARS epidemic. Had infected people travelled—rather than being identified and isolated by health authorities—it could have spread the virus to even more locations.
After Lehman Brothers collapsed, people across the banking industry started thinking in terms of epidemics. According to Haldane, it was the only way to explain what had happened. “You couldn’t tell a story about why Lehman had brought the financial system down without telling a contagion story.” The banking network, of course, turned out to be disassortative. A major bank like Lehman Brothers could therefore spread contagion widely; when Lehman failed, it had trading relationships with over one million counter-parties. “It was entangled in this mesh of exposures—derivatives and cash—and no one had the faintest idea quite who owed what to whom,” Haldane said.
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