With U.S. crude-oil prices falling in fits and starts, traders are pointing to an overwhelming number of variables that have made it unusually difficult to anticipate the direction of prices.
BofA Securities analysts laid out cases in a recent note to clients for oil prices to both rise and fall by as much as $20 over the next few months. “There is simply too much uncertainty around fundamentals going into the winter,” they wrote.
Bernard Drury, chief executive of Drury Capital Inc., a commodities-trading firm that uses momentum-investing strategies that follow prices up and down, said that between oil that is about twice as expensive as it was before the pandemic and the added risk of elevated volatility, speculators including him can’t take nearly as many positions in the futures market.
Traders cautious of tipping their hands or making big ripples in thin markets have been breaking trades into smaller transactions, making it harder to determine prices, said Shankar Narayanan, head of research at Quantitative Brokers LLC, which uses algorithms to trade on behalf of hedge funds, banks and asset managers.
“Oil prices have been scraping the skies since February but on a very poor foundation of liquidity,” he said. “The price is not sustainable.”
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Oil Prices Slump as Recession Fears GrowWith U.S. crude-oil prices falling in fits and starts, traders are pointing to an overwhelming number of variables that have made it unusually difficult to anticipate the direction of prices.
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