When the government releases GDP data Thursday, it is expected to show an unprecedented, nearly 35% contraction in the second quarter.
Economists expect a 34.7% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product, an unprecedented and rapid drop.
The third quarter is expected to show improvement from the second quarterly contraction, which is unlike any in government data. "This is the largest decline in 70 years of quarterly data," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. Aside from the Great Depression, when there was no quarterly data, other sharp quarterly drops were 10% in 1958; 8% in 1980's first quarter, and the 8.4% drop in the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Swonk expects consumption to be down more than 36%, and she is watching the report to see how much services spending slid. "We fell 5 percentage points in the first quarter and consumption was down 6.8%," she said. "The problem is services is such a large share of consumption, and we lost a lot of services."
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