China’s economy is expected to rebound now that the zero-COVID restrictions have been lifted, but there is good reason to be cautious of a strong recovery in 2023, says Coface chief APAC economist Bernard Aw.
strategy in December 2022 sets up its reopening as one of the biggest economic events this year. It has come faster and earlier than analysts expected, against the backdrop of mounting economic and social costs associated with maintaining stringent containment measures.on the assumption that Chinese consumers will unleash their pent-up demand. Chinese growth is an important source of global demand and central to many regional trade activities.
Testing mandates and fears of abrupt mobility restrictions severely suppressed household spending and services activity. Retail sales growth was flat in the first 11 months of 2022. China’s purchasing managers’ index indicated deterioration in services business activity in seven of the 12 months in 2022, with the final quarter showing especially weak performance.Ending zero-COVID measures certainly removes a major hurdle to China’s growth.
Optimistically, Chinese economic activity could return more steadily as early as March, with a firmer recovery possibly starting in theBut there is good reason to be cautious about a strong recovery in 2023, especially for consumption. Zero-COVID restrictions were not the only reasons for weak household spending.Per capita disposable income growth continued to lag behind pre-pandemic norms, showing only an annual increase of 3.2 per cent in the first nine months of 2022 compared with 5.
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