It is a significant milestone that will have long-term repercussions for the economy. Read more at straitstimes.com.
BEIJING – China’s population likely started shrinking last year for the first time in decades, experts say.The government’s official data for total number of births in 2022 – expected to be released next week – will probably show a record low of 10 million, according to independent demographer He Yafu.sixth straight year of declines and the lowestMr He added that the country likely recorded more deaths last year than the 10.
The upshot is that China’s economy may struggle to overtake the US in size and it could lose its status as the world’s most populous country to India this year. That has led to a decline in the number of women of child-bearing age that will be hard to reverse – even after the government ended the policy and allowed families to have more children.
The fall in the working-age population will be even greater: That group will slump to about 650 million people in 2050, a drop of about 260 million from 2020, according to Bloomberg Economics. “Usually population growth would hover around zero for a few years before one can conclude that a country has entered the phase of population contraction,” he added.Labour can still be shifted from less-productive or rural sectors, such as farming, to other areas, according to Wang Tao, head of Asia economics and chief China economist at UBS AG. “Total labour supply for the non-farming sector can still go up,” she said.
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