Food supplies have shifted rapidly from surplus to shortage, and the United Nations has again warned about the heightened risks of world hunger. Since the time of the Pharaohs, governments have intervened to balance food supplies. But right now, those policies are making things worse.
shows that U.S. corn ethanol emits more greenhouse gas emissions than conventional gasoline.
The problem biofuel policies sought to address was political, not environmental. Increased agricultural productivity since World War Two meant grain supply outstripped demand, leaving crop prices languishing. In the 40 years to 2020, the U.S. wheat price barely changed, while average U.S. consumer prices rose by 235%.
Removing the supply of biofuels might risk pushing demand for conventional fuels up, increasing oil prices further. But these fears need to be put in proportion: onlyof oil use is for transportation fuel, and of that less than 10% is actually substituted with biofuel. Demand has been weakening as high fuel prices are causing motorists to drive less, and the slowdown in China is also reducing oil demand. In the medium and longer terms, the shift to renewable energy will reduce oil demand.
The positive ripple effects could be far-reaching. Lower food prices could ease upward pressure on inflation rates and potentially diminish consumer expectations of future price rises. It could also reduce pressure on central bank monetary policies, lower bond yields and the cost of capital for business, relax strong-dollar currency stress, and reduce the risk of recession. There’s no time to waste.
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