AUD/USD keeps the red below 0.6000 amid stronger USD, seems vulnerable near YTD low – by hareshmenghani AUDUSD Fed Recession RiskAversion Currencies
traday descent extends through the mid-European session and drags spot prices to the 0.6675-0.6670 area, or its lowest level since June 2020 touched on Friday.
A combination of factors assists the US dollar to regain positive traction on the first day of a new week, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Firming expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates at a faster pace to tame inflation continues to act as a tailwind for the greenback. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-off environment offers additional support to the safe-haven buck and contributes to driving flows away from the risk-sensitive aussie.
The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. Investors, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting on Tuesday. The US central bank is scheduled to announce its decision on Wednesday and is universally expected to deliver at least a 75 bps interest rate increase.
The markets have also been pricing in a small chance of full 100 bps lift-off. Hence, the focus will be on the so-called dot-plot, which along with updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference, might provide fresh clues about the US central bank's policy outlook.
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