USD/CAD retakes 1.3300, highest since November 2020 amid bearish oil/stronger USD – by hareshmenghani USDCAD Recession Fed RiskAversion Currencies
onday. The momentum lifts spot prices further beyond the 1.3300 mark, to the highest level since November 2020 during the early European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors.
Concerns that a deeper global economic downturn and China's zero-covid policy will dent fuel demand dragto over a one-week low. This, in turn, undermines the commodity-linked loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. Apart from this, the emergence of fresh US dollar buying, supported by hawkish Fed expectations, provides an additional lift to the major and remains supportive of the ongoing positive move.
The incoming US macro data, including the stronger US CPI report for August, suggested that the Fed will tighten its monetary policy at a faster pace. In fact, the markets have fully priced in at least a 75 bps rate increase and a smaller chance of a full 100 bps hike at this week's FOMC meeting. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the risk-off mood, is seen benefitting the safe-haven buck.
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