In 2021 graphics cards were hot stuff. Video-game devotees and cryptocurrency miners queued overnight to get their hands on the latest high-end offering from Nvidia or AMD. Now though, chips of all sorts are looking wobbly
Start with supply. One way that firms have been adding capacity is by installing new kit in existing fabs . In the second half of 2021 global spending on equipment to etch chips onto silicon wafers jumped by about 75% compared with pre-covid levels, estimates Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons, a research firm. Given that it takes about a year for such investments to translate into new semiconductors, late 2022 could see a production glut.
Another way to increase capacity is by building new fabs, which can take a couple of years. According to, another research group, 34 of these came online worldwide in 2020 and 2021. Another 58 are scheduled to begin production between 2022 and 2024. That would raise global capacity by roughly 40%. Intel has six fabs in the works, including a $20bn leading-edge “megafab” in Ohio, and factories in Arizona and Magdeburg, Germany. Samsung’s investment plans include a large modern fab in Texas.
There was always the risk that by the time some of this fresh supply materialised demand might have faded. But the hunger for chips appears to have waned faster than expected. The clearest signs are in the market for personal computers , which account for about 30% of overall demand for chips of all varieties. Having received a boost from the pandemic as working and schooling from home became the norm, global.
The downward pressure on prices may be compounded by another powerful force. Political considerations, both domestic and international, increasingly influence semiconductor supply and demand. On the supply side, last year’s chip crunch spooked governments around the world and reminded those in the West that 75% of all semiconductors are produced in Asia. Many now want to bring the manufacture, especially of leading-edge chips deemed of strategic importance, within their borders.
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