While Zillow's monthly index shows rental growth peaked months ago, it isn't what the Federal Reserve is tracking to gauge inflation, explains Schwab's Kevin...
A look at Zillow Group’s closely followed rent index shows that last year’s roughly 17% yearly surge in rental prices was probably the peak, with the rate of increases dramatically receding in the past six months.
The trend might give renters moving to a new city more breathing room or someone a better shot at affording a place on their own. But here’s why a cooling rental market, evidenced by Zillow Z metrics or others like it, won’t have a ton of sway with the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation. Zillow, however, relies on monthly changes in listing prices of rental properties, as do others that rent properties or track the data. That’s why Zillow’s metrics show a retreat in growth, even though CPI has been climbing.
Indeed, instead of retreating as expected, CPI for August shocked Wall Street by rising to a 8.3% annual rate, propelled by increases in shelter, food and medical care costs. The climbing shelter component suggests homeowners have yet to feel the sting of lower property values, even through the housing market boom has fizzled in the face of increased borrowing costs.
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