The World Bank believes oil prices will average $81 in 2024 if the Hamas-Israel war doesn't escalate to become a regional conflict.
Oil prices are set to average $81 a barrel in 2024 in case the Hamas-Israel war doesn’t spill over to the region—otherwise, in a ‘large supply disruption’ scenario, prices could spike to as high as $157 per barrel, the World Bank said on Monday. This quarter, oil prices are expected to average $90 per barrel – not too different from the price of oil early on Monday at just below $90, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook published today.
In a “small disruption” scenario where global oil supply would be reduced by up to 2 million barrels per day, oil prices would initially increase between 3% and 13% relative to the average for the current quarter—to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel. The “medium disruption” scenario—roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003—would take up to 5 million bpd off global oil supply and send oil prices jumping by 21% to 35% initially—to between $109 and $121 a barrel, according to the World Bank.
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