Women’s NCAA Tournament upset picks: Florida Gulf Coast, Green Bay look to pull upset on Saturday

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Women’s NCAA Tournament upset picks: Florida Gulf Coast, Green Bay look to pull upset on Saturday
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Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner highlight potential upsets in the first round of the women's NCAA Tournament.

Today, we will finish our first-round NCAA Tournament previews with a look at the second day of matchups and potential upsets in women’s March Madness. A reminder: Our statistical model Slingshot, developed with help from the Furman University Mathematics Department, begins by estimating the strength of all Division I teams according to their scoring margin per 100 possessions and their strength of schedule.

. Let’s start here: The coaches with the all-time best winning percentages in the history of DI women’s college hoops are ’s Geno Auriemma , ’s Kim Mulkey , ’s Pat Summitt and … Karl Smesko , the only coach Florida Gulf Coast has ever had. This season, the are 29-4, undefeated in conference play and riding a 22-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament. But that’s what they do pretty much every year.

into a mid-major dynamo. He is the person most responsible for bringing the 3-point revolution and, with it, a deeper appreciation for analytically smart basketball to the women’s game. The Eagles have taken 898 shots from behind the arc this year, and that’s actually down a bit from their usual clip. They were over 1,000 and led the country each of the past three seasons. They also force turnovers on 23.9 percent of opponent possessions and grab 34.1 percent of their missed shots .

ranks 22nd in the NCAA in defensive rebounding percentage and 28th in avoiding steals . Advertisement And guess what? It all works in March! The have won 12-5 upsets in three of the past five NCAA Tournaments. They’ve also lost as a No. 12 seed in overtime in both 2012 and 2014, won as a No. 7 seed in 2015, and lost by 2 points as a No. 13 seed in 2017. If there’s another team, among men or women, that has sustained an underdog groove like that, it’s not in our spreadsheets.

has another excellent chance right now to keep it going. If our model could paint, Slingshot would color its bandwagon blue and green. No. 6 Tennessee Lady Volunteers vs. No. 11 Upset Chance: 31.7 percent Spread: Tennessee favored by 8.5 points We talk a lot about the importance of extra possessions in the fabric of an upset. Well, this game is a great example of that impact. The force turnovers on 20 percent of opponents’ possessions while turning it over just 14.

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