The deal is designed to alleviate a global food crisis; the UN says 50m are on the brink of famine
for food exports. Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, said the ship’s departure was “another step towards preventing world hunger”. The deal is designed to alleviate a global food crisis; the’s secretary-general, called the agreement a “beacon in the Black Sea”. Will the reopening of Ukraine’s ports relieve global hunger?
The reopening should in theory allow Ukraine to export about 5m tonnes of food every month . Some 20m tonnes of grain have been stuck at Ukraine’s ports. Another 60m is expected to be available for export after this summer’s harvest. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, around 40 countries—including many of the world’s poorest—rely on Ukraine and Russia for more than 30% of their wheat imports.
The resumption of grain exports might also help to further rein in global food prices, which have been cooling in recent months. The UN’s Food Price Index declined for the third consecutive month in June largely because of increased cereal output. A bumper harvest in Australia and favourable crop conditions in other wheat-producing countries had already brought down the price of wheat to just above pre-war levels. The announcement of the grain deal pushed it below that benchmark.
Yet uncertainties abound. For one, although the deal has begun to work it is unclear whether Russia will stick to its side of the bargain. Just a day after the deal was signed Russian missiles struck Odessa; there was another strike on Mykolaiv, another Black Sea port, days later. Such attacks may happen again. Moving the grain also presents logistical challenges. Other shipping companies and insurers may still be reluctant to get involved.
If the deal starts to wobble, food prices may nudge up again; after the attacks on Odessa, for example, wheat prices leapt. The uncertainty adds to other long-term risks. The prices of agricultural inputs, such as fuel and fertiliser, remain high. Supply chains are snarled, partly because of the lingering effect of covid-19. Climate change, through severe heatwaves and droughts, threatens to constrain grain supply and drive up prices.
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