China's recovery and U.S. shale output are two main factors of volatility in oil markets, and after a wild 2022, many analysts expect a slightly less turbulent 2023 in oil markets
at close to $80 per barrel. And while some banks expect much higher prices, others expect a stable year for oil., there are two factors that will determine the level of volatility for oil prices this year. The first one is China. The other is the U.S. shale industry.11 China-focused consultants who reported that they expect oil demand in the world’s largest importer to soar by 800,000 bpd this year.
The Chinese economy cannot restart if there are not enough people to restart it, Mizuho Securities energy futures executive Robert Yawger told the Wall Street Journal. This means that the country’s oil demand might not grow as much as expected if the surge in infections continues. And if that turns out to be the case, then oil prices won’t have much higher to go.
Then there’s U.S. shale. The Wall Street Journal article suggests shale drillers are unlikely to reconsider their guarded approach to production growth this year, which means upside potential for oil prices as supply growth remains limited. oil demand growth at 2.7 million barrels daily this year, pushing Brent crude to $105 per barrel in the second half of the year. higher oil prices in the year’s second half, largely on the back of demand rebound from China. The investment bank also noted the slowdown in U.S. shale output growth, uncertainty about the availability of Russian oil, and the end of oil releases from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve among the bullish factors for oil.
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