The flimsiest of the cases is set to go first, and all face delays
trying to convict Donald Trump face a highly unusual deadline. Retaking the presidency would offer Mr Trump his best escape from jeopardy: once back in the White House, he would be able to squelch or pause the four criminal cases lodged against him. Hence prosecutors’ urgency—and a public interest—in concluding those trials before November. Miss that opportunity and he may never be held accountable in a court of law for his alleged crimes.
However, instead of a trial-of-the-century about an event of plain historical significance, the flimsiest of the four cases may go forward first. That trial is scheduled for March 25th in Manhattan. A charge of insurrection or seditious conspiracy—used to convict a number of far-right militia leaders who stormed the Capitol—would have required proof that Mr Trump knew the protests that day would turn violent. Incitement would have elicited a potentially strong First Amendment defence. Still, Mr Smith will need to show criminal intent. Mr Trump’s lawyers contend that he genuinely believed he won and that advisers said his pressure tactics were legal.
If Mr Trump is convicted, sentencing will be up to Judge Chutkan. She has required prison time for every convicted Capitol rioter whose trial she has overseen. But that seems highly unlikely for a former president. A more plausible scenario would be a fine, probation or house arrest. In any event he would remain free while he appealed against the conviction.
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