A Nobel laureate predicted China's recovery weeks before it happened. Analyzing the numbers, he sees a much brighter global outcome than many experts.
“What we need is to control the panic,” he said. In the grand scheme, “we’re going to be fine.”Here’s what Levitt noticed in China: On Jan. 31, the country had 46 new deaths due to the novel coronavirus, compared with 42 new deaths the day before.Sign up for the latest news, best stories and what they mean for you, plus answers to your questions.Although the number of daily deaths had increased, the rate of that increase had begun to ease off.
“This suggests that the rate of increase in number of the deaths will slow down even more over the next week,” Levitt wrote in a report he sent to friends Feb. 1 that was widely shared on Chinese social media. And soon, he predicted, the number of deaths would be decreasing every day.Three weeks later, Levitt told the China Daily News that the virus’ rate of growth had peaked.
This forecast turned out to be remarkably accurate: As of March 16, China had counted a total of 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths — in a nation of nearly 1.4 billion people where roughly 10 million die every year. The number of newly diagnosed patients has dropped to around 25 a day, with no cases of community spread reported since Wednesday.
A medical staff member disinfects equipment in a hospital ward that was used to treat patients with COVID-19. With cases falling, it will revert to being a public ward.for developing complex models of chemical systems, is seeing similar turning points in other nations, even ones that did not instill the draconian isolation measures that China did.
He analyzed 78 countries with more than 50 reported cases of COVID-19 every day and sees “signs of recovery.” He’s not looking at cumulative cases, but the number of new cases every day — and the percentage growth in that number from one day to the next.Confirmed COVID-19 cases by country as of 6 p.m. Friday.
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