OPINION: This new ETF will be benchmarked to an index of betting, alcohol and drugs companies, and I bet it will outperform the broad market over the long term, Mark Hulbert writes.
It’s a good bet that a forthcoming exchange-traded fund that invests in “B.A.D.” stocks will outperform the U.S. market.
In the U.S. market, tobacco stocks on average outperformed the overall market by 4.6 annualized percentage points. In the U.K. market, alcohol stocks beat the overall market by 2.2 annualized percentage points. The researchers didn’t have full 120-year data for alcohol stocks in the U.S. or tobacco stocks in the U.K., but the partial-period returns for those two sectors in those countries show market outperformance of similar magnitudes.
Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, put it more bluntly: “Frankly, it sucks that the virtuous have to accept a lower expected return to do good, and perhaps sucks even more that they have to accept the sinful getting a higher one. Well, embrace the suck as without it there is no effect on the world, no good deed done at all. Perhaps this necessary sacrifice is why it’s called ‘virtue’.
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