Some argue that a retreat of Western firms and sanctions are “crippling” Russia’s economy. Others are less gloomy. Where does the truth lie?
times the Russian economy is about as transparent as a Siberian snowstorm—and these are not normal times. Since
Both sides of the debate agree the country is still hurting. Massive increases in interest rates in the spring, designed to stabilise the collapsing rouble, along with the withdrawal of foreign businesses, have pushed it into recession. In the second quarter of the yearfell by 4% year on year, according to official figures. Many of the country’s 300 one-industry cities hurt by sanctions are in a full-blown depression.
Falling prices are not the only thing helping households. True, the unemployment rate, at an all-time low of 3.9% in June, is misleading. Many companies have furloughed staff, some without pay, in order to avoid registering redundancies. But there is not much evidence of a jobs calamity. Data from HeadHunter, a Russian jobs site, suggest that the economy-wide ratio of jobseekers to vacancies rose from 3.8 in January to 5.
The second relates to recent economic history. Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, may have been on to something in February when, according to the, he told the British government that Russians “can suffer like no one else”. This is the fifth economic crisis the country has faced in 25 years, after 1998, 2008, 2014 and 2020. Anyone older than 40 has memories of the extraordinary economic tumult brought about by the fall of the Soviet Union. People have learned to adapt, rather than panic .
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