An influential report says Americans may have to stay home for months to keep coronavirus at bay. Here's why.
cases, we may have the work of Neil Ferguson, a British mathematical biologist, to thank. A widely respected epidemiologist, Ferguson has used mathematical models to study the transmission of swine flu, Ebola, Zika and other diseases. In early February, Ferguson and his colleagues at Imperial College London were among the first to conclude, using statistical analysis, that China had radically undercounted COVID-19 cases.governments in the U.S. and U.K. into action.
Using data from China and other countries on how the virus is transmitted and how the infection progresses in patients, layered over models of social contacts in the U.K. and the U.S., the team created simulations to see how these interventions would work alone or in concert — and how they compared to no interventions at all.
But we don’t have a vaccine for this coronavirus yet, because it is totally new to us. And because it’s totally new to us, people haven’t had the chance to build up natural immunity to it, the way most of us probably have some immunological memory of past flus that help us resist getting sick every year.
“It’s not going to be a short-term process if we try to do suppression,” said Aubree Gordon, associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health, who was not involved in the study. “The problem is that no one other than those who have recovered from the infection are likely to be immune,” Barry Bloom, an infectious disease and immunology expert at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told HuffPost.
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