A paper published yesterday in the journal Nature Communications warns that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation isn’t just possible, but imminent. But some scientists just flat out disagree.
finding early warning signals in the circulation, says Stefan Rahmstorf, who studies the AMOC current system at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “As always in science, a single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches lead to similar conclusions, this must be taken very seriously, especially when we're talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9 percent certainty,” says Rahmstorf.
“I really question whether [SST] is an adequate proxy for AMOC itself,” agrees Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. “But the trouble is there aren't really adequate measurements.” “This SST fingerprint, although sensitive to the AMOC, is not solely driven by it, so these changes may be overestimated,” agrees Goes, the oceanographer from the University of Miami and NOAA. “Current climate models do not give a strong probability of the collapse of the AMOC this century.”
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