Deutsche Bank still says there's a 90% chance of a U.S. recession this year.
One of Wall Street’s most pessimistic banks is conceding the economic outlook has improved. But Deutsche Bank, in a new update of its house view, still says there’s a 90% chance of a U.S. recession this year.
It says while there’s evidence inflation has peaked, it’s still well above central bank targets and likely to be persistent, and neither the Federal Reserve nor the European Central Bank will tolerate it. Historically, once inflation spikes above 8%, it takes two years to fall beneath 6%, according to strategists Marion Laboure, Cassidy Ainsworth-Grace and Jim Reid.
The analysts also noted the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China, including the shooting down of a large Chinese balloon, but also extending to the decision to stop providing licenses to export to Huawei and an expected agreement with key semiconductor-equipment making countries Japan and the Netherlands to expand the reach of a U.S. technology export ban.
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