☹️ Bonds may not come to stocks’ rescue any time soon, according to “The Stock/Bond Correlation” research from AQR Capital Management.
Failing to do so would dash the hopes of millions of retirees and near-retirees who own diversified stock-bond portfolios. They put bonds in their portfolios on the theory that a fixed-income allocation would cushion stock market losses. But try telling that to the markets this year.
Hope springs eternal, however, and many believe that—any day now—bonds will finally kick into gear and live up to this historical reputation. New research in effect says “not so fast:” An analysis of the last century shows that bonds could very well continue to lose ground in an extended stock bear market.
Only if you were to believe that this century represents the new normal would you want to bet that bonds and stocks will remain negatively correlated in coming years. Otherwise, such a bet rests on a shaky historical foundation.Is that all we can say about the stock-bond correlation—that it on average is positive but fluctuates widely?
That’s why I conclude from this research that investors may be on shaky ground expecting bonds to perform well in an extended bear market.
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