Despite the higher prices, one North Dakota farmer reckons that he will plant only 5-10% more wheat this year than he would have done without the Ukraine war. That is bad news for the consumers of wheat
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskWith a team of four Mr Volk is able to farm 5,000 acres of land. His great-grand father, who immigrated to America from Germany, had to plough the land with horses, then sow it manually, with dozens, if not hundreds of workers. The farm’s first tractor, purchased by Mr Volk’s grandfather almost a century ago, still sits in the barn. It is dwarfed by the modern contraptions next to it, and would not be much use on the farm now.
Despite the higher prices, Mr Volk reckons that he will plant only 5-10% more wheat this year than he would have done without the war, because the risk of spending so much on inputs is too high if the crop does not actually come through. “Two weeks of the wrong weather can change the story in a heartbeat,” he says.
American farmers are making good money. Net farm income last year increased by 25%, according to the Department of Agriculture , to its highest level since 2013. The department reckons that it may dip slightly this year, partly because of reduced government support linked to covid-19, and partly because of higher input costs. But only slightly. The price of farmland, an indicator of the profitability of farming, as well as interest rates, is the highest it has ever been.
Subsidies, largely in the form of crop insurance, help to ensure the food supply continues, and protect farmers from going bust during downturns. But they also determine what America farms—incentivising farmers to grow vast amounts of soyabeans and corn, as well as wheat, which is mostly exported. Corn is boosted not only by direct subsidies but also by the Renewable Fuel Standard, which forces refiners to blend ethanol made from corn into petrol, in turn pushing up the value of the crop.
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