The unemployment numbers may look grim, but there are key differences between what’s happening now and the last meltdown
It’s rough out there. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images A lot of current economic data tell a grim story about the state of the American economy. But there are also rays of hope, and signs that the massive stimulus package Congress passed may help forestall a crisis as bad as some had feared. I spoke with business columnist Josh Barro about the path forward.
Josh: No. In the early stages of this crisis, the initial claims data — which comes out weekly on Thursdays and is one of the most quickly and frequently reported indicators about the state of the labor market — gave us an idea of the unprecedented speed of job loss due to the crisis. But in more recent weeks, the figures have for whatever reason been misleading.
Ben: Stimulus checks, enhanced unemployment benefits, and the PPP program have been lifelines for the individuals and businesses most severely affected by the crisis — like, for instance, the restaurant business you mentioned. While it seems likely that Congress will pass some kind of new aid package in the coming months, it’s unclear whether the political will exists to keep these programs going to the extent that some industries might desperately need them.
There may also be useful things the government can do to incentivize businesses to hire and grow during the recovery, though I’m somewhat skeptical about how well that can be targeted. Steve Mnuchin has been clear that the administration wants another aid package that includes unemployment and state and local government aid elements.
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