The year’s best market forecasts show both where forecasting can work, and why it is possible to make money even while getting many major predictions entirely wrong
Is it better to be lucky or right? This time last year, both Citigroup and J.P. Morgan had what looked like outlandishly bullish forecasts for where the S&P 500 would end 2019, and, barring a major upset in the next few weeks, are the closest among the major Wall Street banks to being right.
Both were right because they thought the big selloff at the end of 2018—down more than 20% on an intraday basis—was excessive. Other forecasters were too cautious in part because they thought the market was right to brace for recession.
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