Coronavirus: When will we know the UK lockdown is working?
It's two weeks since Boris Johnson announced the UK's lockdown, and there are signs the rate of infection is starting to slow, though not deaths.
Not every day's figures are exactly on trend. There have been dips on Mondays when the weekend's figures were being reported, with sharp rises in the following days. And after that, deaths have to be recorded and reported, a process that can take more days, and weeks in some cases. That reporting delay means that, when we do pass the peak, we may not see it in the death figures for a few days.
Prof Neal says we'll only get a clear picture of what's happening"if the government report the number of new confirmed cases in NHS workers separately from cases in patients". Italy's national lockdown began on 8 March. About two weeks after that, the number of deaths started to plateau, with the most recent figures showing a fall.
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