To safely reopen with current testing and contact tracing capacity, a team of disease modelers estimates the maximum number of new COVID-19 infections that a given state could handle is 1 per million people. Very few are close to reaching that.
, a professor of health metrics sciences at IHME, says the team came up with the 1-new-infection-per-million standard based on some surveying they did of the existing capacities of local health departments across the country. But, he says,"it was very difficult for us to be sure. So we made a very conservative estimate.
On the other hand, Mokdad warns that the bar for opening up might actually need to be raised still higher in light ofestimating that about 20% of New York City residents have already been infected with COVID-19. That's many times the number of confirmed cases. And it suggests the coronavirus is being spread by people who are asymptomatic to a far greater extent than IHME's team and other modelers have accounted for."It confused a lot of us," says Mokdad.
Among the implications is that a locality where infections are down to 1 per million might nonetheless need far more testing capacity than IHME's current approach suggests because officials will need to ensure that workers returning to jobs in crowded industries — such as meatpacking plants — are not asymptomatic spreaders of the disease."We have to be very careful of that," says Mokdad.
A final caveat: IHME's model is just one of many that have been created to map the progression of COVID-19, and some other models offer less rosy projections about the trend line of infection rates. In general, models of this sort should not be taken as literal predictions of the future. They can be useful tools for gauging the likely trend line of an emerging disease and the likely impact of various response strategies.
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