President Donald Trump portrayed the "Phase 1" agreement he announced Friday with China with typical fanfare, describing the pact as "massive" and "the largest contract" ever signed."We made a fantastic deal," Trump said during remarks Tuesday at the White House.There
President Donald Trump portrayed the “Phase 1” agreement he announced Friday with China with typical fanfare, describing the pact as “massive” and “the largest contract” ever signed.There are good reasons to be skeptical about those claims. The deal appears likely to benefit American farmers by increasing Chinese purchases of agricultural goods and gives some other businesses more access to the Chinese market.
Since then, exports of soybeans, pork and other products have collapsed under pressure from the trade war. American farm exports to China fell to just $13.4 billion in 2018 and are on track for a similar total this year, according to the same data. U.S. officials could also cancel plans to impose a 15% tax on another roughly $150 billion of goods in December if things go well.
Trump said Friday that some measures concerning intellectual property and technology transfer would be included in the “Phase 1” agreement, with additional protections included in later phases. Officials have given few details, although people briefed on the negotiations said the measures include stronger protection for copyrights and patents.
“The more disclosure there is of China’s formal intervention, the more China is likely to rely on shadow intervention,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former Obama administration Treasury official.A big question has been whether China will stick to the promises it makes.
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