There are some warning signs the pathway toward low inflation may be bumpier than advertised so far.
Pretty much all the important data has been pointing to inflation receding through the final months of 2022.2023's first major reading on prices, there are some warning signs the pathway toward low inflation may be bumpier than advertised so far.The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the CPI data at 8:30am ET tomorrow. Consensus analyst forecasts suggest overall inflation will spike to 0.5% in January, from 0.
Normally, this is a non-event. The agency makes technical changes based on the latest evidence of how prices typically change over the course of a year, then applies those adjustments going back five years. The changes aren't huge — only a fraction of a percent per month — and year-over-year numbers are unaffected. Yet it does suggest the apparent deceleration in 2H of 2022 was not quite as pronounced as originally reported.there are other warning signs out there that disinflation may not happen in a straight line.
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