Why America, Australia, Britain and Canada are lagging behind
Could the inflation nightmare soon be over? Across the oecd club of mostly rich countries, consumer-price inflation has fallen from a peak of 10.7% in October 2022 to 6.2%. Wage growth is slowing, too. Investors are hopeful that, before long, more progress will be made, allowing central bankers to cut interest rates. They may be getting ahead of themselves. Last year The Economist calculated a measure of “inflation entrenchment”.
It was also more focused on handouts to households, such as stimulus cheques, than on measures to keep businesses alive, which may have further stoked demand. Indeed, a new paper by Robert Barro of Harvard University and Francesco Bianchi of Johns Hopkins University finds evidence for a link between fiscal expansion during the covid-19 pandemic and subsequent inflation. Monetary policy is another factor at work.
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