'The 1.6% increase in COLA may actually be better than 2.0%.' Yes, you read that right, and MktwHulbert explains it all here:
Your Social Security check will be just 1.6% higher in 2020 than it is this year. Are you disappointed?
That’s because the COLA is a nominal, not a real, number. The issue isn’t how big the COLA is in itself, but its magnitude in relation to inflation. Take the 2.0% COLA in 2018, which recent news stories have used to put the recent COLA in a negative light. Over the year prior to that 2018 COLA, inflation rose at an even faster pace. So you could quite plausibly argue that seniors were worse off after that year’s COLA than they will be after this coming year’s.This illustrates the misunderstandings caused by confusing nominal with real rates. Economists call it “money illusion.” It leads to no end of false or misleading analyses.
How good a job does CPI-W do reflecting retiree inflation? On the one hand, it has not lagged the better-known CPI-U over the long term. In fact, since June 1975, which is when the Social Security Act designated that the CPI-W be the basis for Social Security COLAs, it has risen at a 0.1% annualized percentage point more than the CPI-U—3.7% instead 3.6%.
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