US think tank says China would probably lose if it tries to invade Taiwan
Three years from now, hypothetically, China launches an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. It does not go well, according to a top Washington think tank report.
The CSIS report on its simulation also predicts very high combat fatalities. The US lost three servicemen a day at the height of the its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Vietnam, that number was around 30. During World War II 300 US soldiers died daily. In most scenarios for a Taiwan conflict, US deaths would average 140 per day.
Second, and fundamental to ensuring the first condition is met, is the fact of Taiwan's geography. There's no overland route to deliver supplies to Taiwan's military - whatever it has when China invades is what it'll have until friendly forces can resupply it over the Pacific.
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