‘We need to see the other shoe drop’ before getting back into stocks, Scott Minerd says.
“ ‘When the markets start to see some of the data on unemployment rising and economic growth and corporate earnings contracting, there will be another level of panic in the market.’ ”
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.51% was at 2,488.65, down 26.5% from its Feb. 18 record closing high. However, Minerd estimated that the index could justifiably fall to 1,500 over time if the realization of woeful corporate earnings and the economic devastation of the pathogen sets in. A drop of that magnitude would represent a worst-case scenario, based on Guggenheim’s models.
Indeed, the Labor Department report on Friday showed that a stunning 701,000 workers lost their jobs last month, representing the worst monthly labor-market reading in 11 years and far exceeding estimates for around 83,000. All three stock indexes on Friday finished lower, including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.68% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -1.52%.
“Probably the most surprising thing to me at this point is how well the markets are holding up,” Minerd said. “Given the economic data, and given the fact that large portions of the capital markets are still virtually closed for business, I would have expected stock prices to be lower at this point,” he said.
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