Why China’s economic rebound has disappointed investors.
Ever since China re-emerged last December from three years of COVID-19 restrictions that disrupted manufacturing and limited domestic consumption in the world’s second-largest economy, Wall Street has been optimistic about its recovery with the hope that it could help limit any global recession as central banks raised interest rates to combat inflation.The...
Consumer spending in China initially drove the recovery in the first quarter of 2023, but will not be strong enough to lift GDP growth to the 5% or 6% level, Bell told MarketWatch in a phone interview. PGIM’s data show that the rebound in real retail sales activity is already stalling and still far below the pre-2020 trend, which is the exact opposite of the U.S. recovery.
The cuts are the latest in a string of moves by Beijing to shore up the wobbly post-pandemic economic recovery. The bank trimmed its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.90% from 2.00% last week. Meanwhile, the one-year medium-term lending facility, or MLF, was cut to 2.65% from 2.75%.
“That’s the problem with demand and there’s no way to fix this other than taking leverage on to the public sector,” Papic said. “You have to ensure that nominal GDP growth is high enough if you’re trying to de-leverage the private sector. If you do austerity, at the same time you’re de-leveraging, you will not reduce your debt because of the denominator effect. That’s what Chinese policymakers are going to be pushing.
China’s State Council, which coordinates government ministries, last week discussed measures to spur growth in the economy, pledging to roll out policy steps in a timely way amid signs that a post-COVID recovery is fading, state media reported, without giving a timeline or details.
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