One of the most powerful calderas on Earth has been experiencing earthquakes for the past few weeks, leading to a new alert but not necessarily towards any new eruption.
unrest like this leads to no eruption and if an eruption happens, it will be relatively small. This doesn't mean a "supereruption" isn't possible, just that the probability of one is very low.So, what is going on at Lake Taupō? GNS Science has reported that there have been two earthquake swarms happening under and near the lake, producing hundreds of small temblors over the last few weeks. The largest was a M4.2 that occurred on September 10, 2022 that was felt across the area.
Graph showing the number of earthquakes measured in recent years at Lake Taupō in New Zealand. Credit: GNS Science., but measurements of Lake Taupō's bottom suggest that part of it has been rising over the past few months as well. This inflation at Horomatangi Reef happening above one of the earthquake swarms .
This sounds bad, but this unrest could be caused by any number of processes. Usually earthquakes and inflation under a volcano are interpreted as magma moving into the system. Remember, magma takes up space, so rocks fracture and the land surface moves . Thing is, you can do the same thing with changes in hydrothermal circulation in the crust.Taupō will need to figure out which is more likely.
Taupō has had 17 bouts of "unrest" over the past century and a half, none of which lead to any eruption. A few were much more intense than the current unrest, most recently in 1983-84. Taupō, like Yellowstone, is a restless caldera where unrest can be very common as things change deep underground without prompted anything at the surface.If Taupō does become volcanically active, the most likely scenario is a small-to-moderate eruption.
as a potential eruption scenario. Another option might be a hydrothermal explosion driven by superheated water.
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