Republicans hold an enormous edge in enthusiasm that could make the difference in the upcoming Virginia governor’s race, according to both public and private polling
Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin greets supporters in Amherst, Va. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty ImagesRepublicans started the year watching the Senate slip away in Georgia — and fretting that Donald Trump’s takeover of the party was so complete that the base wouldn’t show up for them without Trump himself on the ballot..
Nick Everhart, a Republican consultant who worked on the Georgia Senate runoffs and is now involved in Virginia legislative races, echoed that there was “real concern after Georgia that there was going to be lingering anger about the election with base Republicans, the concern being Trump’s vocal frustration was sending mixed messaging that would depress turnout.
“Republicans are going to have a really good night in Virginia next week, but it’s still putting a tourniquet on a gaping wound,” said Jimmy Keady, a GOP consultant based in Virginia, who is working on a slate of legislative and congressional races in the state. “In suburban counties — places like Loudoun County, which has grown by 30 percent, as well as outside of Richmond — the population is trending in the wrong direction for Republicans.
“Republicans have a fundamental disadvantage in this race: There are more identified Democrats in Virginia, vastly more than existed in 2013, and all Democrats have to do is convince them to show up to vote,” said one national Republican involved in the Virginia race. “The margin of victory among independents will not be great enough to offset the partisan leaning of the state if Democrats fix the enthusiasm problem.
Democrats’ wildest hope, to goad Trump into showing up in Virginia before Election Day, doesn’t appear to have worked, though the former president will phone into an election-eve “tele-rally,” it was revealed Thursday.A Christopher Newport University poll found that 80 percent of Republicans were very enthusiastic to vote, while 65 percent of Democrats self-identified that way.
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