Vaneck’s report explained that the investment team “attempted to quantify the emergence of new gold or bitcoin backed currency regimes.”
Vaneck’s Insights blog post says “money has changed,” and highlights the recent sanctions against Russia which froze the country’s USD, EUR, and JPY fiat reserves. Fine and Gurushina write that Vaneck’s EM bond investment team thinks the world’s central banks “will act, as will private individual actors.” The team attempts to quantify the emergence of gold and bitcoin-backed regimes and after the calculations, both estimates are quite substantial in terms of price value.
“We built a simple framework to value gold and bitcoin. For gold, we divide global money supply by global gold reserves,” the Vaneck EM bond investment team blog post explains. “The money liability is divided by the reserve asset. We used current reserve holdings in troy ounces for gold, and we used the current exchange rate to convert the monetary base liability into U.S. dollars.”
The EM bond investment team explains that the implied global price for gold using M0 “divided by global gold reserves, for countries with the largest gold holdings is $31,000 per ounce and $21,000 per ounce .” Additionally, the implied global price for gold using M2 data divided by global gold reserves is “around $105,000 per ounce,” Vaneck’s report notes.
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