Utah State likes to let it fly from long range, and Missouri should be all too happy to oblige after playing all season in a conference that couldn't hit threes. Our college basketball picks have more on this opening Madness matchup.
for Utah State vs. Missouri on March 16, with tip set for 1:40 ET.The smartest minds in sports gambling call this a “stinky” or a “smelly” line. Every analytic ranking out there considersmeasurably better than Missouri. Maybe the inverted seeding can be explained by committee bias toward the bigger conference, but a 1-point spread when something like -3 or -4 would have been expected? That’s inexplicable.
The Aggies’ offense is comparable to the Tigers’. Their defense is far and away better. Focus on just the last six weeks, specifically since Jan. 28, and Utah State is one of the top-15 teams in the country, per the Torvik ratings. In that same stretch?Yet, the Aggies are only one-point favorites. Some of that can be traced to particular large betting groups seeing value in the Tigers.
Missouri’s defense forces opponents to chuck from deep. 44.1% of opposing field goal attempts came from beyond the arc. That was 45.0% in 20 SEC games, so the percentage in 13 non-conference games was comparable, as well. It was not simply a result of SEC offenses being atrocious from deep. It was the Tigers’ approach.
The Aggies will welcome it. They’ve shot 38.5% from deep this season, No. 11 in the country, and take 42.1% of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, ranking No. 61. In 15 of 34 games, they hit more than 40% of their 3-point attempts. Betting the Utah State team total Over will not require the Aggies again hit 40% of their threes, just that they take a bunch of them. Missouri will encourage that.
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