USD weakness remains dominating subject on FX market – Commerzbank – by eren_fxstreet Currencies Majors Banks DollarIndex
"USD weakness remains the dominating subject on the FX market. Because the market still does not believe the Fed’s affirmations that it will not cut the key rate. It has revised its expectations a little since the last FOMC meeting, but not substantially."
"In contrast all those who celebrated New Year’s eve in a T-shirt in Europe are likely to feel less concerned about a shortage of gas. This factor that had been putting pressure on the euro, which had already eased in Q4, is thus disappearing even more quickly."is facing a recession. However, if this is one that is “only” due to a tightening of monetary policy it will not be as damaging for the EUR exchange rates as a recession caused by a shortage of gas would have been.
"Our colleagues in macro research like to refer to the long-term risks of inflation of the more cautious ECB interest rate policy. These dangers are not likely to be concrete enough for the FX market yet. It will take some time yet before it prices these in. I am not sure whether that will become an issue this year or whether that is more likely to become the subject of my outlook for 2024.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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