Canadian labor market data will be released today. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how the employment report could impact the CAD.
CAD should benefitfrom a strong labor market report It is questionable whether another positive surprise from the labor market and continued strong wage growth will convince the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates again. Probably the labor market would have to surprise significantly to the upside and at the same time, the inflation figures due in three weeks' time would have to show that inflationary pressures have persisted.
A strong labor market report is likely to cast doubt on whether the BoC will start cutting interest rates any time soon, as the market currently expects. After all, continued strong wage growth combined with solid job creation should argue for continued strong inflationary pressures, which could necessitate a ‘high for longer’. The CAD should benefit from this.
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