US inflation eases but stays high, putting Fed in tough spot

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US inflation eases but stays high, putting Fed in tough spot
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US consumer price increases eased slightly from January to February but still pointed to an elevated inflation rate.

The government said Tuesday that prices increased 0.4% last month, just below January's 0.5% rise. Yet excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core prices rose 0.5% in February, slightly above January's 0.4% gain. The Fed pays particular attention to the core measure as a gauge of underlying inflation pressures.

When measured against prices a year ago, inflation has been easing for eight months. In February, consumer prices climbed 6% from 12 months earlier, down from January's 6.4% year-over-year increase and well below a recent peak of 9.1% in June. Yet it remains far above the Fed's 2% annual inflation target. Core prices in February rose 5.5% from 12 months ago, down slightly from 5.6% in January.

Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said Goldman now thinks the Fed's policymakers will pause their rate increases next week. Goldman had previously predicted a quarter-point hike. In a note to clients, Hatzius noted that the Fed, for now, appears even more focused on calming the banking sector and the financial markets than on fighting inflation.

The possibility of a Fed pause underscores the sharp shift in the nation's financial system and economy in barely one week. Last Tuesday, Powell had told the Senate Banking Committee that if hiring and inflation continued to run hot, the Fed would likely raise rates at this month's meeting by a sizeable half-point.

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