The US Dollar stabilized against Emerging Market currencies last week. Ahead, investors will be tuning in for FOMC minutes. Will balance sheet normalization boost USD? Get your market update from ddubrovskyFX here:
This past week, the US Dollar continued to stabilize against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso. Broadly speaking, the Greenback remains lower against Emerging Asia currencies since the March Federal Reserve interest rate decision. This follows broad gains in ASEAN indices, signaling that investor confidence has been improving – see chart below.
Emerging Market currencies tend to be quite sensitive to global risk trends when comparing them against the US Dollar – see chart below. As such, the flow of capital into and out of the developing world can be important to follow. A gauge of this from Bloomberg is sitting at its highest since early February after finding a bottom on March 14Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been playing a key role.
The situation still remains volatile, but traders may shift back to the underlying issue placing Emerging Markets at risk, the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Geopolitical tensions in Europe may bolster food and energy prices, perhaps pushing to a more hawkish central bank. The markets are also starting to price in a recession given that a key gauge of theWith that in mind, traders are going to be eyeing the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.
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