Ukraine gets stronger as Russia's military gets weaker - but this remains a David versus Goliath struggle, and the Russian Goliath maintains significant strength.
In July, the then Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov said that he 'believes that Ukraine will win the war by next summer and could be admitted to NATO in July 2024'. The reality of what Ukraine has really achieved on the ground would suggest this was an overly optimistic assessment - but who is winning? In early June, Ukraine launched its long-expected counteroffensive against the Russian defences, having had some significant successes in late 2022.
The Russian use of attack helicopters and well-planned defences showed the vulnerability of Western armour and stopped the Ukrainians making significant progress, meaning that at the start of the autumn mud season, the conditions for the win Mr Reznikov is expecting by next summer remain a long way off. An emboldened Russia even counterattacked the Ukrainians near Avdiivka in the Donetsk Oblast, but only after receiving 1,000 containers of ammunition and equipment from North Korea.