The fate of Ukraine and the shape of the West’s alliances may depend on what happens in the next few weeks. But Ukraine’s backers should not assume that the coming battle will be the last one
Ukraine may never have a better chance than this. The occupiers are weakened; during the past two months, Russia has marched into a killing zone around, in the Donbas region, and it has so far failed to replace the tens of thousands of men it has lost there. Vladimir Putin has passed new laws that will make it easier to draft more cannon fodder, but it will be months before his unlucky new recruits are available for action.
The battlefield has been remarkably static for the past five months, since Ukraine drove the Russians back across the Dnieper in Kherson province in November. This is bad news, because it suggests that the conflict is in danger of freezing along a new “contact line” that would leave Ukraine challenged along most of its south and east, and shorn of most of its sea access; a big problem for a country that depends on exporting commodities.
So Ukraine, and its Western backers, should prepare for the possibility that the counter-offensive will yield only marginal gains, or worse. And even if it does break the land bridge, there is no guarantee that Mr Putin will come to the negotiating table. He no doubt hopes that if he drags the war on long enough, Western support for Ukraine will start to wobble.
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