U.S. retail sales post biggest drop in a year; coronavirus drag awaited

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U.S. retail sales fell by the most in more than a year in February and the coronavirus outbreak is expected to depress sales in the months ahead, as Americans hunker down in their homes

WASHINGTON - U.S. retail sales fell by the most in more than a year in February and the coronavirus pandemic is expected to depress sales in the months ahead, which could strengthen economists’ expectations of a consumer-led recession by the second quarter.

The coronavirus outbreak has forced millions of Americans to hunker down in their homes instead of commuting to work or school. State and local governments have escalated “social distancing” policies, closing schools, bars, restaurants and theaters in an attempt to contain the spread of the virus. Compared to February last year, retail sales increased 4.3%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services retail sales were unchanged last month after increasing by an upwardly revised 0.4% in January. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously reported to have been unchanged in January.

The sector, which accounts for about 11% of the economy, is also being hamstrung by problems at Boeing related to its grounded 737 MAX plane and an oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, which has weighed on crude prices and hurt American producers. “The outlook for all of 2020 has darkened substantially, however, as it is increasingly likely that a short and sharp recession will occur in the middle of the year,” said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio.

Receipts at clothing stores fell 1.2% last month. Online and mail-order retail sales rose 0.7%. That followed a 0.2% gain in January. Receipts at furniture stores slipped 0.4%.

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