The chances of the U.S. falling into recession over the next 12 months has fallen to just 15%, according to Goldman Sachs' chief economist Jan Hatzius.
The chances of the U.S. falling into recession over the next 12 months has fallen to just 15%, according to Goldman Sachs.
And Hatzius accepts there are “fundamental reasons to expect a deceleration in [the fourth quarter], including the resumption of student loan payments and a near-term hit to housing from the recent increase in mortgage rates.”Hatzius gives two main reasons for this. First, real disposable income looks set to reaccelerate in 2024 on the back of continued solid job growth and rising real wages.
Indeed, his belief that what is called trimmed mean inflation has fallen to a 2% to 2.5% range in recent months will take pressure off the central bank to raise borrowing costs further. Interest rate cuts of 25 basis points per quarter are likely to start in the second quarter of 2024, says Hatzius. “We are unconcerned about the 0.3 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 3.8% in August because it was entirely driven by an increase in labor force participation, the employment/population ratio remained stable at a cycle high, and the first estimate of payroll growth picked up to 187k despite a roughly 50k drag from the Yellow bankruptcy and the Hollywood strike,” he says.
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