A fading of the U.S. dollar's allure will continue as global funding strains ease, but a majority of analysts polled by Reuters said there was a high risk that the U.S.-China trade standoff will renew safe-haven bets in the next six months.
BENGALURU - A fading of the U.S. dollar’s allure will continue as global funding strains ease, but a majority of analysts polled by Reuters said there was a high risk that the U.S.-China trade standoff will renew safe-haven bets in the next six months.
World shares hit three-month highs on Wednesday as monetary and fiscal stimulus have given traders confidence, despite expectations for a slow economic recovery, growing concerns over U.S.-China tensions, U.S. civil unrest and rising coronavirus infections. “There are a number of bad risks...and the fact that we are in the midst of falling into a very deep downturn that could certainly harm investor sentiment in the coming months. But for now, the liquidity provision of quantitative easing has been like a morphine injection.”
“With the U.S. elections just a few months ahead, the de-escalation of U.S.-China tensions looks unlikely. The challenging domestic contest and the USD overvaluation...lead us to see risks skewed to the downside over the next six months,” said Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of G10 FX strategy at BBVA. The euro has disregarded a contraction in May economic activity based on the PMIs and the increase in the jobless rate, with traders more focused on expectations the European Central Bank would increase its pandemic-related bond purchases when it meets on Thursday.
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